South Africa, U.S.: Dueling for Hegemony in Africa
Sep 04, 2007
Summary
South Africa recently expressed opposition to the proposed U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM), in a move to prevent Washington diplomatically from challenging Pretoria's dominant position in southern Africa. However, South Africa's designs do not extend into the West and the Horn of Africa. There, AFRICOM will face a different set of basing obstacles as it pursues its core interests of securing energy supplies and combating terrorism.
Analysis
Just days after South African Defense Minister Mosiuoa Lekota said the Pentagon's command in Africa, known as AFRICOM, is not welcome in southern Africa, former Zambian Vice President Christon Tembo said Sept. 4 that caution is needed by African countries before AFRICOM can be established, an allusion to a similar position taken by Zambian President Levy Mwanawasa.
However, South African opposition to AFRICOM will not block the latest U.S. combatant command from securing basing rights in the West and Horn of Africa regions. But it does represent an effort by Pretoria diplomatically to pre-empt the United States from challenging South Africa's return as the undisputed regional power in southern Africa.
South Africa sees itself as the natural power in southern Africa. It is thus seeking to re-establish its hegemonic position, which during the apartheid era reached as far north as southern Angola and the Katanga province area in southern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Namibia, Botswana, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique and Zimbabwe were also in this sphere of influence.
The end of apartheid in 1994 saw the African National Congress (ANC) party come to power in South Africa, first under Nelson Mandela and then under Thabo Mbeki. While both Mandela and Mbeki sought to reassure neighboring countries that South Africa no longer held hegemonic designs, South African commercial interests -- dominated by its mining sector but also including banking, construction and telecommunications -- not only continued but also expanded their operations in southern Africa.
South Africa's almost-complete consolidation of democracy under ANC rule also means its era of internal focus will be ending shortly, opening up room for maneuver elsewhere. With no credible rival political party in sight, Mbeki's party will face certain re-election in 2009. Mbeki's as-yet-unchosen successor -- or possibly Mbeki himself, since he has not ruled out seeking a third term -- will be expected to devote more resources to promoting South Africa as Africa's premier power, able to involve itself internationally by mediating conflicts in Africa and assuming leadership positions at the U.N. Security Council, the African Union and the G-8.
Already Africa's most sophisticated polity and greatest economy, South Africa's power soon will be complemented by a series of military moves. South Africa's push for a Southern African Development Community peacekeeping force, to be equipped and based in South Africa but able to inject itself into any of the continent's conflicts, will be reinforced by the procurement of Saab Grippen and BAE Hawk fighter jets, A-400M aerial refueling and transport aircraft and German submarines and corvettes. Delivery of this package began in 2006 and is expected to end by 2012. This defense package will provide South Africa, already Africa's leading military power, with an even more robust capability that will far outstrip the capabilities of any other African military.
Outside of southern Africa, South Africa has limited influence on the continent. During apartheid, South Africa did not concern itself with regions outside of southern Africa. It had enough going on domestically and in the southern region, from deal-making in the mining sector to combating liberation-seeking insurgents and domestic political opponents. Since the end of apartheid, South Africa's efforts to mediate c
South Africa, U.S.: Dueling for Hegemony in Africa
Sep 04, 2007
Summary
South Africa recently expressed opposition to the proposed U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM), in a move to prevent Washington diplomatically from challenging Pretoria's dominant position in southern Africa. However, South Africa's designs do not extend into the West and the Horn of Africa. There, AFRICOM will face a different set of basing obstacles as it pursues its core interests of securing energy supplies and combating terrorism.
Analysis
Just days after South African Defense Minister Mosiuoa Lekota said the Pentagon's command in Africa, known as AFRICOM, is not welcome in southern Africa, former Zambian Vice President Christon Tembo said Sept. 4 that caution is needed by African countries before AFRICOM can be established, an allusion to a similar position taken by Zambian President Levy Mwanawasa.
However, South African opposition to AFRICOM will not block the latest U.S. combatant command from securing basing rights in the West and Horn of Africa regions. But it does represent an effort by Pretoria diplomatically to pre-empt the United States from challenging South Africa's return as the undisputed regional power in southern Africa.
South Africa sees itself as the natural power in southern Africa. It is thus seeking to re-establish its hegemonic position, which during the apartheid era reached as far north as southern Angola and the Katanga province area in southern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Namibia, Botswana, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique and Zimbabwe were also in this sphere of influence.
The end of apartheid in 1994 saw the African National Congress (ANC) party come to power in South Africa, first under Nelson Mandela and then under Thabo Mbeki. While both Mandela and Mbeki sought to reassure neighboring countries that South Africa no longer held hegemonic designs, South African commercial interests -- dominated by its mining sector but also including banking, construction and telecommunications -- not only continued but also expanded their operations in southern Africa.
South Africa's almost-complete consolidation of democracy under ANC rule also means its era of internal focus will be ending shortly, opening up room for maneuver elsewhere. With no credible rival political party in sight, Mbeki's party will face certain re-election in 2009. Mbeki's as-yet-unchosen successor -- or possibly Mbeki himself, since he has not ruled out seeking a third term -- will be expected to devote more resources to promoting South Africa as Africa's premier power, able to involve itself internationally by mediating conflicts in Africa and assuming leadership positions at the U.N. Security Council, the African Union and the G-8.
Already Africa's most sophisticated polity and greatest economy, South Africa's power soon will be complemented by a series of military moves. South Africa's push for a Southern African Development Community peacekeeping force, to be equipped and based in South Africa but able to inject itself into any of the continent's conflicts, will be reinforced by the procurement of Saab Grippen and BAE Hawk fighter jets, A-400M aerial refueling and transport aircraft and German submarines and corvettes. Delivery of this package began in 2006 and is expected to end by 2012. This defense package will provide South Africa, already Africa's leading military power, with an even more robust capability that will far outstrip the capabilities of any other African military.
Outside of southern Africa, South Africa has limited influence on the continent. During apartheid, South Africa did not concern itself with regions outside of southern Africa. It had enough going on domestically and in the southern region, from deal-making in the mining sector to combating liberation-seeking insurgents and domestic political opponents. Since the end of apartheid, South Africa's efforts to mediate c